A DROP in the Australian dollar to below US60 cents last week has rekindled export demand and prompted consumers to lift their bids by up $5-$10 per tonne in the southern wheat and barley markets in order to compete.

In the north, sorghum rallied $10/t on the weaker dollar and redoubled interest from China as its tariff stoush with the United States enters uncharted territory.

Moves in the northern wheat and barley markets have been mixed, largely because sorghum has captured so much export capacity for coming months out of Queensland.

Conditions remain very dry in much of South Australia and western Victoria, and mixed in southern New South Wales, as dry sowing starts to ramp up on early dual purpose or grazing crops.

Table 1: Indicative prices in Australian dollars per tonne.

Sorghum buoyant in north

Growers with sorghum left to sell are being urged to do so at current values, supported by buoyant demand from China and the weak Aussie dollar.

Trade sources believe up to 80 percent of the southern Qld crop has been sold, and more for the north-west New South Wales crop.

The later Liverpool Plains crop was around 60pc harvested prior to successive rains arriving last month.

“Growers are just getting back into it,” Quest Commodities principal Jayne Barker said.

Unharvested Liverpool Plains sorghum has received roughly 80-200mm of rain in recent weeks, and downgrading has been seen in post-rain loads.

Ms Barker said a number of growers have started planting winter crops as their summer-crop harvest, including cotton picking, rolls on.

“A lot have oats in, and then they’ll go canola, and possibly some early barley.”

At current values, just-harvested sorghum remains the grower’s cash crop of choice now that the market has hit rule-of-thumb selling levels.

“Prices have popped up to $400 Newcastle, or $350 plus ex farm; that’s what they were keen to see.”

Ahead of the main planting window for wheat in May, Ms Barker said some growers were selling a load of wheat to Newcastle to backload with fertiliser.

“There’s not a big focus on wheat at the moment.

“Prices are holding steady, and there’s enough around to satisfy near-term demand.

“I think once the sorghum vessels have come and gone, the emphasis will be back on wheat.”

Ms Barker said barley appeared to have some upside as consumers and exporters work to get tonnage.

“Barley’s still pretty tight coming out from grower hands; there’s still a bit of upward pressure, with more buying interest than selling interest.

Brisbane’s sorghum market has also hit values brokers are encouraging growers to take, partly because any de-escalation of the US-China tariff tensions could challenge Australia’s origin-of-choice status.

“We’re definitely seeing a few more sorghum sellers; with Brisbane up to $400 delivered, that’s the target for a lot of people,” Knight Commodities Goondiwindi-based broker Gerard Doherty said.

“I’m encouraging growers not to lose sight of how good these numbers are.”

Mr Doherty said consumer demand for wheat and barley has been subdued since the rain started last month, but has picked up because of increased competition from exporters.

“We’re seeing more inquiry now that the dollar has fallen, and more consumer engagement after the rain.”

With a return to warm and fine weather, growers able to get on to their paddocks are starting to plant oats, and will move on to other crops in coming weeks.

Mr Doherty said the small amount of off-spec sorghum that got caught by the rain is likely to be blended into bulk cargoes, which reflect the high testweights and quality of pre-rain grain.

Woodside Commodities managing director Hamish Steele-Park said current-crop cottonseed was hard to buy because of its very low stocks ahead of new crop become available, and because of recent rain.

“Wet weather has delayed the start of ginning in southern Qld and northern NSW by two weeks,” Mr Steele-Park said.

New-crop cottonseed values are up $5/t firmer this week on the lower AUD, with ex Moree gin for May-August out-turn being $415/t, and delivered Downs $460/t.

South sales slow as sowing accelerates

Forecasts for southern NSW, western Vic, and SA, have this month looking devoid of general rain, and some growers on generally lighter country have started dry sowing their winter crops ahead of the expected break.

At Wagga Wagga, Peters Commodities trader Peter Gerhardy said nine times out of 10, a break arrives in May if it doesn’t come early in March.

“It’s dry and dusty, and there’s no rain on the horizon for April, which is not unusual,” Mr Gerhardy said.

“Some people are dry sowing, and if you get 10mm of rain, it’ll be enough to get the crop going.”

Mr Gerhardy said rises in the southern wheat and barley markets can be put down to the weakened Australian dollar.

“Consumers are sitting relatively quietly, and it’s more trade interest that’s wanting to buy.

“Exporters might be starting to step up a little bit and…some are already on the prowl.”

Mr Gerhardy said the combination of the rally in AUD terms, as well as growers switching into planting mode, made volume hard to procure.

“Grower selling is minimal because as soon as they see a bit of a rally, they’ll sit tight and hope for more.

“They’re not desperate for cash, and once farmers get on the tractor for sowing, they don’t want to get off it and into the truck to deliver grain.”

At Meningie in South Australia’s Upper South East, Platinum Ag agronomist Matt Howell said there was “no feed at all” in paddocks, and graziers and mixed farmers were buying whatever feed they could.

“That’s hay, barley, canola meal, cottonseed from NSW, pellets; you name it,” Mr Howell said.

“You can still get hay and barley locally, but at a premium now.”

He said growers had started dry sowing, and were expecting a run of days with maximum temperatures of around 30 degrees Celsius, unusually warm for this time of year.

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